I am not sure anyone anticipated the events that followed the removal of petrol (PMS) subsidy in Nigeria on the 1st of January 2012. The street rallies, protest marches, etc. that played out in Abuja, Kano, Kaduna and some other Nigerian cities were predictable because they followed historical patterns in many respects.
What i never dreamt about was the intense drama that played out at the Ojota Square in Lagos State. It was the biggest carnival of the decade. No political party or movement had ever pulled such a stunt, ever. There were hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people at the Square, everyday for a little over a week. They even planned and took a weekend break and attempted to resume but for the forestalling actions of government agents.
The Ojota rallies were an odd mixture of people, power, politics and entertainment. The people have completely re-defined how rallies are organised and managed for maximum impact, and i must add entertainment. The people were of course the drivers of the event and even though it must have all began with a handful of civil society organisations in collaboration with organised labour, i saw more people sucked into the rallies like it was the work of a clever enchantress.
The music, the drama, movies and the numerous side-shows were used to energise and convince the people that the rallies were the best places to be for that period. Skilled orators came and spoke politics, the politics of the petroleum industry and the politics of poor governance in Nigeria. These masterful speakers informed, provoked, needled, stirred and goaded the mammoth crowds. However, noticed that each time it appeared that the people had been overtaken with fever of some sorts and was going to run amok, entertainment in the form of popular music was used to douse the tension and to rein in the masquerade. I could hardly believe all of these as i watched it live.
The power plays that went on for that week was really curious. The highlight of it for me was when strange bed fellows, the CSOs and the organised labour, fell out and went their various ways at some point. It was a classical lovers quarrel. Labour yielded to the logic of "national security" or insecurity and suspended the strike action but the civil society determined to carry on with the project. Of course, the formal pronouncements and action that initiated the movement was made by Labour so the CSOs at this time were like the proverbial house built on sand. How can it stand the fierce four winds of security agents, legal actions, betrayals of trust and conflict fatigue?
It was also interesting to note how the subjects of discussions or issues in contention kept changing. The government kept talked about saving the economy from imminent collapse, saving money for the future, fighting corruption, etc. On the other side, a cacophony of voices spoke about maintaining the cost of petrol at N65.00, about better governance, about corruption, about the ordinary man, etc. i believe someone must have deliberately led everyone into this impossible shouting match. There was no way any meaningful conversation could be had because every one was talking about everything until we all got weary. Then it stopped and we relocated the debate to a committee room in the national assembly and a carefully selected group of persons now invited to participate. What a way to transform conflict?
Let stop by sharing a few thoughts on how the "Occupy Nigeria" movement is already and may still affect businesses in 2012.
- The petroleum industry in Nigeria has probably started the last lap of its journey to becoming truly transparent, responsible and accountable. These are indeed the last days of easy money in the industry. So, if you a service provider or contractor of any kind, this is the time to cleanup and get ready for serious competition, dispassionate enforcement of regulations and for washing your linen in the arena of social responsibility, hopefully, yours are clean enough. I think these things will happen quickly - within 2 years.
- Organising and managing large, and i mean really large open events such as political rallies has just become big business. So if you are in the events management sector, please get ready for the next round. Prepare your proposals and submit them to the various governors getting ready for re-elections this 2012. By all means send to their opponents as well. The next big and predictable one will be in the 2015 general elections. Small businesses, get ready to supply and feed the big fish in the ocean. in my rough estimation a minimum of 25,000 micro, small and medium scale businesses were involved in the Lagos rallies and hundreds of millions of Naira exchanged hands in just a few days and at one location. You need to get plugged in deep to this boom economy next time around.
- Government expenditure in capital projects and in the delivery of social services is likely to improve while expenditure on overheads may begin to dip. This calls for a change in strategy because the ways of securing business from overhead budget of a Nigerian public institutions are quite different from how to get business from the capital budget. The degrees of flexibility that the institutions enjoy vary slightly but significantly. So prepare to make some adjustments to ensure you remain competitive.
- Government is going to get more serious about creating enabling environment for small and medium scale businesses to emerge and to thrive for the simple reason that unemployment is a major reason for the ready availability of "unhappy people", the most important element anyone needs to start another "occupy Nigeria" movement. So, get your business plans ready and look out for the next opportunity to submit it to a government programme.
More to follow soon.
Regards,
Uzo Nduka
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